STR: US 2011, 2012 forecasts lowered

The U.S. hotel industry is expected to report smaller increases in all three key performance metrics for year-end 2012 than previously forecasted, according to STR’s updated industry forecast.

The company’s revised 2012 forecast includes a 0.2% increase in occupancy to 60%; a 3.7% jump in average daily rate to US$105.29; and a 3.9% rise in revenue per available room to US$63.18.

STR also predicts that 2012 year-over-year demand will increase 1.1% and supply will rise 0.9%.

The U.S. hotel industry is expected to end 2011 with a 4.0% occupancy increase to 59.9%, a 3.6% increase in ADR to US$101.58, and a 7.7% increase in RevPAR to US$60.81. Supply in 2011 is forecasted to rise slightly by 0.7% and demand is expected to end the year with a 4.7% increase.

The change in the forecast is a result of the continuing global economic uncertainty and the tougher year-over-year comparisons the industry will face in 2012.

“While we are still confident industry performance will remain positive during 2012, we are concerned about the lack of growth in the overall macro-economic indicators,” said Amanda Hite, president of STR. “In addition, the stronger-than-expected demand growth for hotels this year will make for difficult year-over-year comparisons in 2012. Our revised forecast reflects an industry posting record levels of demand, operating in an environment where the economic fundamentals cannot be ignored.”