International tourist arrivals are forecast to grow at a more moderate 3.3% per year pace, but still reach 1.8 billion by 2030, according to the UNWTO long-term forecast, Tourism Towards 2030. As a result, an average 43 million additional international tourists will join the tourism marketplace every year.
At the projected pace of growth, arrivals will pass the 1 billion mark by 2012, up from 940 million in 2010. By 2030, arrivals are expected to reach 1.8 billion, meaning that in two decades time, 5 million people will be crossing international borders for leisure, business or other purposes.
International arrivals in emerging economies are expected to continue growing at double the pace (+4.4% year) of advanced ones (+2.2% a year). In absolute terms, the emerging economies of Asia, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, Eastern Mediterranean Europe, the Middle East and Africa will gain an average 30 million arrivals a year, compared to 14 million in the traditional destinations of the advanced economies. By 2015, emerging economies will receive more international tourist arrivals than advanced economies, and by 2030 their share is expected to reach 58%.
There will be increases in the global market shares of Asia and the Pacific (to 30% in 2030, up from 22% in 2010), the Middle East (to 8% from 6%) and Africa (to 7% from 5%), and further declines in the shares of Europe (to 41% from 51%) and the Americas (to 14% from 16%), mostly due to the slower growth of North America.
By 2030, North East Asia will be the most visited sub-region in the world, representing 16% of total arrivals and taking over from Southern and Mediterranean Europe, with a 15% share in 2030.
A large proportion of the arrivals of the next two decades will originate from the countries of Asia and the Pacific, growing at a rate of 5% a year and generating an average 17 million additional international arrivals every year. Europe follows with an average 16 million extra arrivals a year, resulting from a much more moderate growth rate (+2.5% a year), but on top of a much larger base. The remaining 10 million additional yearly arrivals are generated by the Americas (5 million), Africa (3 million) and the Middle East (2 million).