A rocky road ahead

A rocky road ahead

2011 was a bumpy year for many. Economic gyrations were prevalent all over the world. China was up, but Europe was down. U.S. unemployment was stubbornly high, but Brazil was at full employment. The hotel business had a good year overall, but that won’t help individual markets like Detroit, Honolulu and Scottsdale, Arizona. What’s in store for 2012?

Here are some predictions:

  • Booking pace for 2012 will be off by 10%.
  • RevPAR in the luxury segment will improve by 5%.
  • A major hotel group will go bankrupt.
  • Hotel apps for iPhone and other smartphones will double.
  • There will be at least five new CEOs running recognizable hotel brands.
  • A major restaurant company will get into the hotel business.
  • A luxury retail brand will get into the hotel business.
  • A major tourist destination will approve casino development.
  • Private equity will not be able to do a significant IPO.
  • Boutique — I mean, “lifestyle,” hotels — will get a new category moniker.
  • Brazil will be the next overbuilt market.
  • Qatar will be the next Dubai.
  • India will have less than half the hotel development that has been announced.
  • Donald Trump will be back in the casino business.
  • Online poker will not be legalized in the United States.
  • A music mogul will announce the first hip-hop hotel.
  • Europe will become a tourist bargain.
  • The Green Bay Packers will not will the Super Bowl.
  • The London 2012 Olympics will sneak up on everyone.
  • A hotel executive will win a major political campaign.